MVFC Preview
With the departure of FCS powerhouse North Dakota State to the Mountain West, the MVFC enters one of its most unpredictable seasons in recent memory. The conference features a clear top tier, with six teams capable of competing for the league championship. I predicted every MVFC game, including each team’s conference record, overall finish, and the 2026 conference champion.
(9) Murray State
Record Prediction: 1-11, 0-8.
Win: Valparaiso.
Losses: Eastern Illinois, Middle Tennessee State, Oklahoma State, Southern Illinois, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Dakota State, Illinois State, Youngstown State, Indiana State, Northern Iowa.
Analysis
Murray State has struggled mightily in the MVFC, holding a 2-22 record over the past three seasons. Eastern Illinois and Northern Iowa are games the Racers need to win if they hope to reach three victories.
(8) Indiana State
Record Prediction: 3-9, 1-7
Wins: Eastern Illinois, Valparaiso, Murray State.
Losses: SEMO, Purdue, North Dakota, South Dakota, Youngstown State, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, South Dakota State.
Analysis
There is a clear divide in the MVFC between the top six teams and the bottom three. Quarterback Elijah Owens was expected to have a big season in 2025 but suffered a season-ending injury against Eastern Illinois.
He finished ninth in the 2024 Jerry Rice Award Voting, giving the Sycamores reason for optimism entering the season. SEMO and Northern Iowa are two season-defining matchups.
(7) Northern Iowa
Record Prediction: 3-8, 2-6
Wins: Drake, Indiana State, Murray State
Losses: Eastern Washington, Iowa, Illinois State, North Dakota, Youngstown State, Southern Illinois, South Dakota State, South Dakota.
Analysis
Todd Stepsis enters his second season as the head coach at Northern Iowa after a previous stint with Drake. Rebuilding in the MVFC is not ideal and the Panthers need to take a massive step forward in 2026 to push the .500 mark.
The opener against Eastern Washington is an exciting matchup, and a showdown against Stepsis’ former team should be fascinating. Getting Indiana State at home is huge.
(6) Illinois State
Record Prediction: 8-4, 4-4
Wins: St. Francis (Ill.), Western Illinois, Northern Illinois, Eastern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Indiana State, Murray State.
Losses: South Dakota State, North Dakota, Youngstown State, South Dakota.
Analysis
Illinois State made a remarkable run to the FCS national championship game last season, upsetting perennial power North Dakota State before dominating UC Davis and Villanova. The Redbirds have some big questions to answer, as Tommy Rittenhouse and his top target Daniel Sobkowicz both depart.
Northern Illinois presents an intriguing FBS matchup and one Illinois State should expect to compete in, if not win. A brutal closing stretch that includes North Dakota, Youngstown State, and South Dakota could leave the Redbirds worn down by the end of the regular season.
(5) South Dakota
Record Prediction: 7-5, 5-3
Wins: Central Connecticut State, Eastern Washington, Indiana State, Murray State, North Dakota, Northern Iowa, Illinois State.
Losses: Northern Colorado, Boise State, Youngstown State, Southern Illinois, South Dakota State.
Analysis
South Dakota loses its head coach, long-time starting quarterback, and five of its top six offensive linemen from a season ago. Despite all the turnover, USD returns a deep stable of running backs and decent production on defense.
Northern Colorado and Eastern Washington will be tough tests as the Coyotes work to find their footing, but the path is there for USD to push for the postseason. The road slate is brutal, with trips to Youngstown State, South Dakota State, and Illinois State on the docket.
For a program that has advanced to at least the FCS quarterfinals in each of the past three seasons, the expectation is to compete for an MVFC championship.
(4) Southern Illinois
Record Prediction: 8-4, 5-3
Wins: West Florida, Samford, SEMO, Murray State, Youngstown State, South Dakota, Northern Iowa, Indiana State.
Losses: Illinois, Illinois State, South Dakota State, North Dakota.
Analysis
Southern Illinois is loaded on offense. The Salukis bring back All-American quarterback DJ Williams, a one-two punch at running back, and significant experience on the front line. If SIU can address its defensive line questions through the transfer portal, this is a team that could make a run in the postseason.
West Florida, Samford, and SEMO are games that the Salukis should be favored in while a three-game stretch against Youngstown State, South Dakota, and Illinois State could determine if SIU is a legit threat to win the conference.
(3) South Dakota State
Record Prediction: 9-3, 6-2
Wins: Stetson, New Haven, Eastern Illinois, Illinois State, Murray State, South Dakota, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Indiana State.
Losses: Northwestern, Youngstown State, North Dakota.
Analysis
SDSU enters 2026 as the favorite to win the MVFC after finishing 9-5 last year. The Jackrabbits return quarterback Chase Mason and four of five starters along the offensive line, giving SDSU a solid foundation to build upon.
The non-conference schedule is favorable, with the Jacks set to host Stetson, New Haven, and Eastern Illinois. The conference opener will test SDSU’s new-look secondary, as Youngstown State brought in a talented group of transfers at wide receiver and brings back the best quarterback in the FCS.
A trip to Grand Forks is another season-defining matchup with UND having a legit home field advantage. Though the talent is there to be a championship contender, the rest of the conference appears better equipped to challenge the Jackrabbits in 2026.
(2) North Dakota
Record Prediction: 9-3, 6-2
Wins: LIU, St. Thomas, Portland State, Indiana State, Murray State, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Illinois State, Southern Illinois.
Losses: Nebraska, South Dakota, Youngstown State.
Analysis
UND returns its starting quarterback, six significant contributors along the offensive line, and a lethal edge rushing duo on defense. Eric Schmidt enters his second season as the head coach and is one of the better defensive minds in the MVFC.
The first seven games of the year should give the Fighting Hawks plenty of momentum heading into a clash with South Dakota State. Road trips to South Dakota and Youngstown State will be difficult, but getting Illinois State and Southern Illinois at home should help UND close the regular season strong.
(1) Youngstown State
Record Prediction: 9-2, 7-1
Wins: Mercyhurst, Duquesne, South Dakota State, South Dakota, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, North Dakota, Murray State, Illinois State.
Losses: Kentucky, Southern Illinois.
Analysis
Youngstown State carries high preseason expectations after winning eight games last season and returning the Walter Payton Award winner at quarterback. New defensive coordinator Ryan Riemedio inherits plenty of talent to work with as YSU signed a strong transfer class to overhaul the secondary and add depth at linebacker.
The Penguins also return one of the conference’s most experienced offensive lines, giving the offense a strong foundation as it looks to remain among the FCS’s most productive units.
The schedule layout is favorable with home games against South Dakota, North Dakota, and Illinois State. If YSU defeats South Dakota State, the path to an MVFC title becomes much clearer.
Outlook
The margin between the top six teams is slim, and one upset could reshape the conference race. With NDSU no longer in the league, the MVFC appears as wide open as it has been in years, setting the stage for one of the most competitive championship races in the FCS.
