2030 St. Francis-West Virginia and the Illusion of Exposure in Power Four Games

Shockwaves ran through the Division I landscape when St. Francis (PA) decided to leave the Northeast Conference for Division III. The ever-changing college sports landscape makes this a logical move for the Red Flash. Of course, this move impacts St. Francis' future non-conference football opponents, who must find replacements. The saddest cancellation may be the Red Flash's game against West Virginia in 2030.

The West Virginia game would have been St. Francis' first against a Power Five opponent since the Division I split in 1978. St. Francis had played multiple Group of Five programs recently, but none had the brand name notoriety of the Mountaineers. The West Virginia game could have expanded the profile of the perennially overshadowed Northeast Conference.

However, past television data indicates Power Five games may not be worth the trouble of staying in Division I.

The table below shows every time the Northeast Conference has played a Power Five team and with the network these games aired on.

All viewership numbers courtesy of sportsmediawatch.com

*2022 Rutgers-Wagner shared viewership with three other games with regional coverage on the Big Ten Network

**2023 Rutgers-Wagner shared viewership with three other games with regional coverage on the Big Ten Network

Of these 10 games, none aired on national non-conference linear networks, while 7 aired on either ESPN+ or the ACC's regional sports networks (the Raycom-produced package that The CW acquired in 2023). None of these games were ratings juggernauts, including the Big Ten Network-aired Wagner-Rutgers games, which split viewers with other games on the Big Ten Network in their window.

In all likelihood, the St. Francis-West Virginia game would have landed on ESPN+. Ironically, the NEC's in-house broadcaster, NEC Front Row, provides more exposure than ESPN+, being free of charge for viewers. Aside from the fallacy of exposure, these games were hardly competitive. The average score of these Power Five vs NEC games is 54-3. These games have done little for the reputation of the league.

In some ways, they have hurt the NEC's perception. Syracuse and Wagner notably agreed to play ten-minute quarters in 2022 after Syracuse took a 49-0 halftime lead. An NEC team has to win a Power Five game or come close for the league to reap the benefits.

It is common knowledge that Power Four teams offer higher payouts for FCS games. However, these higher payouts do little to solve the Northeast Conference's financial woes. Northeast Conference. The NEC has arguably the worst media deal in all of Division I.

Although financials are unavailable, the conference had a single men's and women's basketball game apiece aired by an ESPN linear platform. ESPN+ streamed four men's basketball and three women's basketball regular season games. There is no competition for viewing windows on ESPN+ since it is a streaming service, ESPN just chooses not to stream many NEC games. One can imagine ESPN's payout to the conference is miserly, especially with Sacred Heart and Merrimack leaving for the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.

The $100,000-$200,000 difference offered by a Power Four game will not fix the glaring issues with NEC's media deal. NEC membership is quickly losing profitability as the conference expands westward with the recent additions of Mercyhurst and Chicago State. St Francis likely realized the benefits of the exposure and payout of the West Virginia game did not outweigh the constant existential crisis of the NEC membership. Furthermore, others have pointed to St. Francis' declining enrollment as a driver for the move to Division III.

Ultimately, losing the chance to play West Virginia is a tragedy for fans and prospective players. Traveling to a nearby Power Four program is an unforgettable experience, but the program will never experience this thrill. Although the decision to drop to Division III may make sense financially, financials cannot measure heartbreak and disappointment. Playing West Virginia or taking down a MAC team are unforgettable moments for alums and students and could curtail donations in the future. Division I membership is a point of pride for many alums and students, which the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported from the fallout from St. Francis' move. Paycheck games against brand names are part of the Division I experience for many schools. St. Francis (PA)'s experience is an interesting case study of whether these moments in time are enough to keep schools at the highest level.