Analyzing Presbyterian’s Case For an At-Large Bid

Dayton derailed one of the best stories of the 2025 season when it stunned Presbyterian 35-19. While the Blue Hose are not out of the conference race, they need Dayton to drop another conference game and Drake to drop two of its final four games, excluding the Dayton game.

The Blue Hose are 7-1, which would not be a problem in any other conference, but it is for the Pioneer Football League (PFL). Long considered the weakest FCS conference, the PFL has never received an at-large bid to the FCS Playoffs. Weak non-conference performance is the catalyst for this, but Presbyterian provided hope.

Despite their strong start to the season and potential for an 11-1 finish, the Blue Hose must fight against these perceptions to gain the PFL’s first-ever at-large bid.

Before investigating the scenarios, one must look at Presbyterian’s resume. The Blue Hose have two non-conference wins over Southern Conference schools that will likely finish with a winning record. Mercer is 6-1, while Furman is 5-3, with Mercer leading the conference with an undefeated league record.

In the Pioneer Football League, Butler and St. Thomas would be the only teams to win over those with a likely plus-.500 record if the Blue Hose finish 11-1. To bolster this resume, the Blue Hose may need some help from its opponents.

Mercer's loss to Presbyterian is now a distant memory. The Bears have six straight wins and now sit at 6-1. The Bears still have games against Chattanooga and Western Carolina, the other unbeaten team in Southern Conference play, that will decide the league crown.

A win over a Mercer squad that is 9-1 against FCS competition and in contention for a seed would make Presbyterian's non-conference resume as impressive as other at-large bid contenders. If Mercer can somehow beat Auburn for the first time in 14 meetings, it would make the win even better.

Furthermore, Furman finishing the season strong helps Presbyterian. Although the Paladins play Mercer, they have two more winnable games on the schedule against Chattanooga and VMI. Losses to Mercer and Clemson to close the year would put the Paladins at a respectable 7-5 to bolster the Blue Hose's resume. A Furman FBS win would do wonders for Presbyterian's resume. Unfortunately, the Paladins are winless in their last 33 meetings vs Clemson, last winning in 1936.

People will look at Presbyterian's situation and naturally assume that Dayton must win its final three games to help the Blue Hose's resume. A loss to a 9-2 Dayton squad with a win over Drake would make for an excusable conference loss.

Nevertheless, another Pioneer Football League school could surprisingly boost Presbyterian's resume. St. Thomas is 5-3 and ends their season against North Dakota State. A win over an 8-4 St. Thomas squad with a win over the then-#1 team in the country would make Presbyterian's resume hard to overlook.

However, like the scenarios involving Mercer and Furman's FBS opponents, this too is unlikely. North Dakota State is 5-0 all-time against the Pioneer Football League since 1991 (the league's inaugural year), outscoring their opponents 295-27 and winning by no fewer than 42 points. Still, there is always a chance for chaos to occur. This chaos could push Presbyterian into the FCS Playoffs.

Presbyterian has had a start to the season that many FCS teams could only wish for. The Blue Hose are 7-1 and on pace for their best season in decades. Nonetheless, the fact that one must discuss these wild scenarios just for the Pioneer Football League to receive a second bid is a glaring indictment of the national perception of the conference. Sadly, it seems schools must buck historic trends just for a potential 11-1 Presbyterian squad to make the FCS Playoffs for the first time.