Reign of Terror
Montana is home to the Mecca of FCS Football: Washington-Grizzly Stadium. In-state rival Montana State boasts 16 Big Sky Conference Titles and an all-time playoff record of 21-14-2.
To the east, North Dakota State owns arguably the most dominant dynasty of all time, winning five straight FCS national championships from 2011-2015 – and continuing dominance after a "disappointing" semifinal loss to James Madison in 2016.
Dakota adversary SDSU prides itself on consistency and a long, hard-fought ascent to the FCS throne, finally capturing a national title in 2022 and running it back the next season.
These four programs have set the standard for sustained success in the Football Championship Subdivision, and continue to show what it takes to become elite.
For years, schools have tried to close the gap between themselves and these national powers, but always seem to come up just short in the end.
In 2023, the University of Albany made a run to the FCS semifinals, then experienced a dramatic drop the next season – falling to a record of 4-8.
William & Mary appeared to be building something special three years ago and was on the cusp of preeminence with a strong record of 11-1. Unfortunately, the Tribe would get obliterated by Montana State in the FCS quarterfinals 55-7, seemingly killing any momentum the program had created.
There have been cool stories and memorable runs, but it always feels like the clock strikes midnight before "Cinderellas" achieve greatness and new teams reach the mountain peak of FCS football.
Incarnate Word head coach Clint Killough, on Sam Herder's FCS Football Talk Podcast, put it this way when describing SDSU, "they don't flinch."
With a college football landscape that is constantly changing, which programs will be able to evolve into a model of stability and triumph, testing the core identities of the Dakota and Montana schools?
Mercer
Mercer has emerged as a legit contender the past four seasons, compiling a total record of 34-14 and making the playoffs two times in 2023 and 2024. Drew Cronic revitalized the program in 2019, building a culture centered on development and a refusal to accept mediocrity.
2021 marked a crucial year for Mercer, as the Bears were able to earn a record of 7-3 and thrive in SoCon play, going 6-2 with standout wins over Chattanooga and Furman. Despite missing the playoffs, this season established the foundation for Cronic's vision and propelled the school onto the national radar.
Just two years later, Mercer would find themselves in the FCS playoffs for the first time in program history, knocking off Gardner-Webb in the first round before being eliminated by eventual national champion, SDSU.
In 2024, Mike Jacobs took charge after Cronic left to become Navy's offensive coordinator. The Bears didn't miss a beat, and in fact took another huge step forward, rolling through SoCon play and winning a tight postseason contest against Rhode Island, who was 11-2 heading into the matchup.
Mercer finished with a record of 11-3, and had statement victories over Chattanooga, Wofford, and East Tennessee State.
Behind the Bears' Rise
Mercer has a tremendous amount of support and continues to attract large crowds. Last season, Mercer averaged 8,576 people in attendance per game, filling up about 84% of their stadium on a typical fall Saturday.
Throughout 2023, the Bears were able to draw approximately 9,741 people each contest, which accounts for 95% of Five Star Stadium.
Those numbers prove that the Macon community is serious about football and wants to do whatever it takes to reach the upper echelon of the FCS. Even when Mercer has down years, like 2018 (5-6) or 2019 (4-8), fans still rush to games in order to back their hometown squad.
In addition to the impressive attendance statistics, Mercer also has advanced facilities and strong NIL pledges from donors.
About two years after Mercer's Board of Trustees voted to reinstate football (2012), the school revealed plans for the Tony and Nancy Moye Football and Lacrosse Complex, committing approximately 14 million dollars towards the construction of these developments.
Included in the plans for the complex was Mercer's football and lacrosse stadium, as well as a Field House that would hold coaches' offices, game day suites, a player lounge, and other accessories.
The implementation of this establishment increased the excitement forming around the program and encouraged individuals to fully endorse FCS football in Georgia.
Understanding the substantial progress Mercer had made since football was brought back in 2013, four Bears alumni made a huge donation towards the program. Gary L. Abbott, Billie Abbott, Louis Abbott, and Jane Abercrombie-Abbott established The 1892 Fund in 2021, enhancing the football team's operating budget and providing more flexibility for the coaching staff and Athletic Director.
The Abbotts' generous contributions have played an instrumental role in the recruitment of key prospects and continues to help the coaching staff retain high-level talent.
Trench Power
Mercer has done an outstanding job of developing talent in the trenches, which could be the proper formula to match the accomplishments of schools like NDSU or Montana.
In 2024, under the guidance of new defensive coordinator Jahmal Brown, Mercer held opponents to 20.14 points per contest and gave up an average of 71.6 yards on the ground, ranking first in the FCS in the latter category. Against NDSU in the FCS quarterfinals, the Bears limited the Bison to 133 yards on the ground, but failed to shut down NDSU's skill position groups.
If Mercer is able to upgrade the defensive backfield and surround QB Whitt Newbauer with more weapons, the Bears will soar up the FCS hierarchy and stake their claim as a championship contender.
Incarnate Word
Similar to Mercer, UIW has built a name for itself the last four years, winning about 80% of its contests during that span and making playoff showings three times.
Much of the success the Cardinals are seeing now can be attributed to former head coach Eric Morris, who turned the program around despite facing the trials of rebuilding from an era of underachievement.
Before Morris arrived in San Antonio, to say UIW had its issues would be a significant understatement. In 2016, the Cardinals endured a 3-8 season and regressed in 2017, dropping to a record of 1-10. A string of losing seasons and an inability to adapt to the Southland Conference ultimately led to Larry Kennan's dismissal.
Seizing the reins in 2018, Morris immediately transformed the culture, sending UIW to the FCS playoffs for the first time in school history and plowing through Southland play with a record of 6-2.
Although 2019 was frustrating, Morris was able to persevere through a 5-7 season and battle against COVID restrictions, coming out the backend of his tenure with UIW stronger. The Cardinals boasted a 10-3 record in 2023, making the playoffs a second time and putting up an incredible fight against #1 Sam Houston State in round two of the FCS playoffs.
G.J. Kinne would continue the upward trajectory of the program, leading UIW to the FCS semifinals in 2022. He would later bolt to FBS Texas State, opening the doors of the program and causing the departure of 66 players.
The baton would then be passed to Clint Killough, a sharp individual who had rapidly climbed the coaching staff rankings at UIW. Killough has followed Morris's blueprint, winning 20 games and knocking off Villanova in the playoffs.
Inside the Cardinals' Climb
UIW has been able to revamp its program due to elite recruiting, particularly in the transfer portal, and links to Name, Image, and Likeness programs.
According to data from 247sports.com, UIW ranked first in Southland recruiting in 2021, receiving a prospect average of 82.86 and finishing 138th out of all schools – both FBS and FCS – in the Composite Team Rankings.
In 2023, the Cardinals finished second in the Southland with a prospect average of 85.82 and several three star commits. That same year, UIW ranked first in the conference in transfer portal ordering, bringing in 13 players, 12 of them having either two or three star ratings from the institution.
The intentionality of the last three coaches when it comes to analyzing player profiles has elevated the program to another level, as athletes that come into the program match the culture and are judged based on character traits and personality.
This objective process has fostered an ultra competitive atmosphere and is often the reason why players decide to transfer to UIW.
Complementing UIW's recruiting tactics is an NIL collective known as the Forever First Foundation, which is an aggregate that prioritizes fundraising, fan engagement, and family. The group focuses on funding the football program and allowing the opportunity for players and coaches to receive direct monetary benefits.
The Forever First Foundation was founded in 2019 and has enhanced the solidity of The Word, spreading news about the program via social media platforms and inking deals with coveted prospects.
Speed and Skill: UIW's Offensive Identity
UIW's strengths are the complete opposite of Mercer's. In contrast to the Bears, the Cardinals torch opponents on the perimeter, relying on a lethal passing attack and a plethora of WR weapons to do so.
In 2024, the Cardinals accumulated 275.64 passing yards a game and scored 33.64 points. Zach Calzada turned in his best season, throwing for 3,744 yards and 35 touchdowns. He graded out with a QB rating of 144.1.
There is clearly plenty of potential at the skill positions for UIW, but the question remains if they'll be able to increase their physicality and match the offensive and defensive line play of the Big Four.
Beyond the Fringe: Other Teams to Watch
Tarleton State - Lone Star Leverage
The Texans reap the benefits of recruiting in Texas and have a lot of positive momentum coming off of a 10-4 season.
Abilene Christian - Scrappy and Rising
In 2024, ACU nearly stunned Texas Tech in OT and gave NDSU a scare in round two of the FCS playoffs. Can the Wildcats be consistent?
UC Davis - California Dark Horse
Many picked the Aggies as a sleeper playoff team last season. 7-1 Big Sky Conference record is eye opening.
Moving Forward
Mercer and UIW are in great positions to be aggressive and attempt to catch the Dakota and Montana titans. Both have the necessary ammunition — NIL/Donors/Support — to make a push for the FCS crown and can each use their geographic areas to assemble a championship squad. Matching the continuity of programs like SDSU or MSU won't be easy, but savvy use of the transfer portal may give challengers like Mercer and UIW the opening they need. In a subdivision defined by legacy and grit, the next powers may already be rising in Georgia and Texas.