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Saturday afternoon at Foster Stadium presents both opportunity and desperation as VMI opens Southern Conference play against a Chattanooga program trying to salvage what's been a nightmarish start to the 2025 season.
For the Keydets (1-3), this is a chance to turn around a tough non-conference schedule and start fresh in league play. For the Mocs (1-4, 0-1 SoCon), it's about survival. An 0-2 start in conference play would basically end any hopes of competing for a SoCon title in coach Rusty Wright's seventh season.
The gap between expectations and reality couldn't be bigger for Chattanooga. Picked to finish second in the SoCon before the season, the Mocs have instead lost four games this year split by a 63-0 victory over Stetson. That includes defeats to FBS Memphis, ranked opponents Tennessee Tech and Tarleton State, and most concerning, a 28-10 home loss to The Citadel in their conference opener last weekend.
While losing to ranked teams makes sense given the tough schedule, The Citadel game showed real problems that VMI will try to take advantage of. The Bulldogs ran for 336 yards and controlled the ball for over 36 minutes, winning the battle at the line of scrimmage.
Red zone struggles are the Mocs’ biggest issue on defense. Ranked 105th in the country in red zone defense and giving up 34 points per game, the Mocs haven't been able to stop teams when they get close to the end zone. That's bad news heading to Lexington to face a VMI offense that is tied for first in the Southern Conference in red zone offense.
Quarterback Camden Orth has struggled protecting the football, throwing six interceptions against just four touchdowns. The Mocs are ranked 106th in turnover margin with a -1.00 average.
The good news? Running backs Ryan Ingram and Justus Durant bring tons of experience with over 4,000 combined career rushing yards. They've averaged 7.2 yards per carry over the last three weeks.
Linebacker Zion Rutledge is playing great football with back-to-back career-high tackle games. Safety Kam Baah-Slay set a program record for defensive backs with 19 tackles against The Citadel. Finally, the special teams has been electric. Kick returner Markell Quick and punt returner AJ Little both have return touchdowns this season and are tied for the national lead in their positions.
Don't let VMI's 1-3 record fool you. Coach Danny Rocco's Keydets have been competitive. The Keydets lost close games to Bucknell (35-28) and nearly upset Richmond before falling 38-14 in a weather-delayed game. They've also had an extra week to prepare after their bye week, which should have this offense ready to go.
The stats tell an interesting story. VMI is one of just seven FCS programs to score on every red zone trip this season. Even better, they're one of only two teams to score touchdowns on all of them. That kind of efficiency wins close games, something VMI nearly did against ranked Chattanooga in 2023 when they lost 24-23.
Quarterback Collin Shannon has been excellent, posting a 141.9 passer rating while averaging 245.5 yards per game with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. His favorite target is wide receiver Owen Sweeney, who ranks third in the country in receiving touchdowns with six. Sweeney averages an explosive 21.6 yards per catch and has scored in four straight games. He caught four passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns in the last game against Richmond.
VMI is good at taking care of the football. VMI is one of 11 FCS teams that hasn't lost a fumble this season. When you combine scoring every time in the red zone with protecting the football, you have a winning formula.
On defense, end Jacob Moore has been a force, ranking second in the country in tackles for loss at 2.0 per game. Linebacker EJ Wilborne had a career-high 13 tackles against Richmond, while safety Kouri Crump made big plays with a forced fumble in that same game.
Red zone performance will decide this game. VMI's perfect red zone offense against Chattanooga's struggling red zone defense (105th nationally) is the biggest mismatch on paper. If Shannon and Sweeney can make the explosive plays they've made all season, and if the Keydets can score touchdowns instead of kicking field goals, they'll control this game.
Chattanooga's best chance to win is running the ball with Ingram and Durant, keeping the game short, and winning the turnover battle. The Mocs can't afford for Orth to throw interceptions, and they need their defense to make the big plays that have been missing during this four-game losing streak.
Special teams could be the difference. With both Quick and Little able to take any return for a touchdown, Chattanooga can flip field position or score six points in seconds. VMI punter Ben Shrewsbury has been great, averaging 46.1 yards per kick with four boots over 50 yards against Richmond. The field position battle will be fun to watch.
Chattanooga leads the all-time series 20-9-1 and has won three straight games. But history shows that Foster Stadium has been tough for the Mocs to play in. VMI's last win in the series came at home in 2021 (37-34 in overtime). Looking at Chattanooga's last four trips to Lexington (not counting a 63-7 blowout in 2018), the games have been decided by one score with an average margin of just 28.8-27.0.
VMI starts SoCon play rested, efficient, and playing at home where they've historically given Chattanooga trouble. The Keydets have the advantages in the areas that matter most: red zone offense, turnover margin, and quarterback play.
Chattanooga desperately needs this win to save their season. However, desperation often leads to mistakes. The Mocs have been making mistakes all year. Wright's team is talented enough to win this game, but can they play clean when the pressure is on?
Give me the Keydets in a close one. VMI's precise offense takes advantage of Chattanooga's red zone defensive problems, and the home crowd at Foster Stadium gives Danny Rocco's team just enough energy to open conference play with a big win.
Prediction: VMI 31, Chattanooga 27
Kickoff is set for Saturday, October 4 at Foster Stadium in Lexington, Virginia.
