MVFC Preview
The MVFC will be as deep and loaded with talent as ever, with the second tier of teams all vying for playoff spots and the upper echelon obliterating each other in marquee matchups. Preseason darling Illinois State could be a factor in the quest for the Valley throne, joining the ever-dominant Dakota Powers. YSU, SIU, USD, and UND will compete fiercely for fourth place, while UNI, Murray State, and Indiana State will attempt to avoid irrelevance.
South Dakota State
Record Prediction: 10-2, 7-1
Wins: Sacramento State, Drake, Mercyhurst, Youngstown State, Northern Iowa, Murray State, North Dakota State, Indiana State, Illinois State, North Dakota.
Losses: Montana State, South Dakota.
Analysis
SDSU has an intriguing out of conference schedule, squaring off first with Sacramento State then traveling to Bozeman, Montana a week later to take on the Bobcats. I think the Jackrabbits will be able to plow through the Hornets, but Montana State is a different story. Home field advantage is a major factor in a 50/50 game like this, that’s why I’d lean in favor of MSU.
A conference tilt at Youngstown State will be a challenge for SDSU. Given the advantage they have in the trenches, the Jackrabbits can sustain an early storm in the Ice Castle. SDSU hosts North Dakota State and Illinois State, which is massive considering the talent both of those squads possess. SDSU breaks out the broom and sweeps these Valley juggernauts. Road trips to South Dakota and North Dakota loom as potential stumbling blocks.
North Dakota State
Record Prediction: 11-1, 7-1
Wins: The Citadel, Tennessee State, Southeast Missouri State, South Dakota, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Indiana State, Youngstown State, North Dakota, Northern Iowa, St.Thomas.
Losses: South Dakota State.
Analysis
NDSU starts the 2025 campaign with three warm-up games: The Citadel, Tennessee State, and Southeast Missouri State. To kick off conference play, the Bison host South Dakota, which should be a win considering the significant roster turnover in Vermillion. Illinois State and South Dakota State are two incredibly difficult away contests, but I think NDSU will split there (1-1). On the road at North Dakota is a potential trap game, although the Hawks appear to be a year or two away from being a legitimate threat.
Illinois State
Record Prediction: 9-3, 6-2
Wins: Morehead State, Eastern Illinois, North Alabama, Murray State, Youngstown State, South Dakota, Northern Iowa, Indiana State, Southern Illinois.
Losses: Oklahoma, North Dakota State, South Dakota State.
Analysis
The Redbirds produce a 3-1 non-conference record, with Oklahoma being the only defeat. Taking on perennial force North Dakota State to open MVFC play is intimidating, but I expect Illinois State to be competitive and come up just short. The next five weeks give the Redbirds an opportunity to heat up, with Youngstown State and South Dakota being the only teams of real concern. Illinois State should be favored in the YSU and USD matchups, and I believe they are the deeper and more talented team in both instances. Southern Illinois in the season finale is must-see TV.
South Dakota
Record Prediction: 8-4, 5-3
Wins: Lamar, Northern Colorado, Drake, Murray State, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota State.
Losses: Iowa State, North Dakota State, Illinois State, Southern Illinois.
Analysis
The first two weeks of the 2025 campaign won’t be easy for the Coyotes – they will face Iowa State then Lamar. Northern Colorado and Drake help boost confidence and prepare for the conference slate. The end of season is daunting, but the Coyotes manage to go 2-2 and set the stage for a promising 2026 campaign.
Youngstown State
Record Prediction: 7-5, 5-3
Wins: Mercyhurst, Robert Morris, North Dakota, Murray State, Southern Illinois, Indiana State, Northern Iowa.
Losses: Michigan State, Towson, South Dakota State, Illinois State, North Dakota State.
Analysis
A trip to Towson on September 20th is season-defining for the ‘Guins, as a win or a loss could determine their postseason prospects. SDSU, UND, and Illinois State form a brutal stretch of opponents, but YSU is able to escape the Alerus Center by the skin of their teeth. Finishing strong, the ‘Guins end the season on a three-game win streak in hopes of returning to the FCS playoffs.
Southern Illinois
Record Prediction: 7-5, 5-3
Wins: Thomas More, SEMO, Indiana State, North Dakota, Northern Iowa, Murray State, South Dakota.
Losses: Purdue, UT Martin, North Dakota State, Youngstown State, Illinois State.
Analysis
Out of conference road trips to Purdue, UT Martin, and Southeast Missouri State will test the identity of this team, and it could very well dictate how the rest of the season plays out. The Salukis find one win in that three-game span and enter the Valley with a 2-2 record. Matchups with North Dakota, Northern Iowa, and Murray State allow SIU to pick up steam before a clash with Youngstown State hands the Salukis a setback heading into the final stretch. SIU responds by manhandling South Dakota in front of a home crowd.
North Dakota
Record Prediction: 5-7, 3-5
Wins: Portland State, Valparaiso, Northern Iowa, Indiana State, Murray State.
Losses: Kansas State, Montana, Youngstown State, Southern Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota State, South Dakota State.
Analysis
Portland State and Valparaiso provide the Fighting Hawks with two victories in the first four weeks. Northern Iowa, Indiana State, and Murray State are all winnable games. While an upset or two is possible, a brutal MVFC keeps the Hawks just below .500.
Northern Iowa
Record Prediction: 3-9, 1-7
Wins: Butler, Utah Tech, Murray State.
Losses: Wyoming, Eastern Washington, North Dakota, South Dakota State, South Dakota, Southern Illinois, Illinois State, North Dakota State, Youngstown State.
Analysis
Butler and Utah Tech give the Panthers optimism about the future. However, the MVFC grind offers no favors to rebuilding programs. Murray State presents itself as the Panthers’ only other win.
Indiana State
Record Prediction: 2-10, 1-7
Wins: McKendree, Murray State.
Losses: Eastern Illinois, Indiana, Montana, Southern Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota State, North Dakota, South Dakota State, Illinois State, Youngstown State.
Analysis
The Sycamores open with a likely win over McKendree before entering a brutal stretch that exposes depth concerns.
Murray State
Record Prediction: 0-12, 0-8
Wins: None.
Losses: East Tennessee State, Southeastern Louisiana, Georgia State, Jacksonville State, South Dakota, Illinois State, South Dakota State, Youngstown State, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, North Dakota, Indiana State.
Analysis
This program has a lot of work to do while being shown virtually no mercy from the scheduling Gods. Could the Racers shock the world in 2025? It’s a tall task, but stranger things have happened.
2025 Missouri Valley Football Conference – Final Standings (Tiebreakers Applied)
- South Dakota State (7-1) - Head-to-head win over NDSU = AQ
- North Dakota State (7-1) - Loss to SDSU = co-champ, not AQ
- Illinois State (6-2)
- Youngstown State (5-3) - Head-to-head over SIU
- Southern Illinois (5-3) - Lost to YSU
- South Dakota (5-3)
- North Dakota (3-5)
- Northern Iowa (1-7) - Head-to-head over Murray State
- Indiana State (1-7) - Head-to-head over Murray State
- Murray State (0-8)
Tier Groupings
MVFC Champions: SDSU (AQ), NDSU (co-champ).
Playoff Teams: Illinois State, YSU, SIU.
Mid-Pack: South Dakota, North Dakota.
Rebuilding: UNI, Indiana State, Murray State.
The Rundown (Top 3)
SDSU
They return three offensive linemen with full-time starting experience, a dual-threat QB in Chase Mason, and productive wideouts Grahm Goering and Lofton O’Groske. RB Julius Loughridge is an unbelievable get from Fordham, he will make an instant impact. Sac State transfer Coleman Kuntz offers stability at tight end. On defense, five key contributors return on the D-Line, and several promising linebacker prospects are ready to emerge. The secondary is the biggest concern, but the addition of Zayid Aziz (Georgetown) and Jayden Oliver (Buffalo) heightens expectations.
NDSU
The Bison return their top two wide receivers, QB Cole Payton, and rotational tailback Barika Kpeenu. Griffin Empey and Trent Fraley will anchor the offensive line, along with Jack Liwienski. Depth in the wideout room is unbelievable, as Bryce Lance, Chris Harris, RaJa Nelson, and Mekhi Collins enhance an already quality offense. Defensively, stalwarts Tony Anene, Logan Kopp, and Darius Givance provide play-making abilities at all three levels. Jack Iuliano was an excellent portal grab from UAlbany.
Illinois State
Three starting offensive linemen, QB Tommy Rittenhouse, two All-MVFC running backs, and two starters at wide receiver all return to an immensely talented roster. Wenkers Wright and Mason King will be a deadly combo in the backfield. Daniel Sobkowicz is among the FCS’s most reliable and explosive pass-catchers. The defense returns their leading tackler, numerous crucial contributors on the defensive front, and experience in the secondary. Nick Kessler and Jake Anderson are wrecking forces on the defensive line. LB Tye Niekamp was a First Team All-MVFC selection (2024).
Final Analysis
This could be a strange year for the MVFC, especially if SDSU is able to overtake NDSU despite a tremendous amount of roster attrition this offseason. The dogfight in the heart of the standings will be fascinating, with razor-thin margins likely deciding playoff hopes. For the programs stuck at the bottom, it will be near impossible to find consistency on a week-to-week basis.
