Could the WAC's Demise Trigger ASun Expansion?

"What Happens to a Dream Deferred?" -Langston Hughes

The Western Athletic Conference (WAC) had ambitious dreams of a comeback to the FBS landscape. A few years after being on life support, the conference coaxed four Southland teams to join in 2020. Soon after, the Atlantic Sun Conference (ASun) joined forces with the WAC to pursue their combined dreams of FBS glory. Unfortunately, as with most college sports tragedies, conference realignment laid waste to the ASun and WAC's plans.

First, Oklahoma and Texas' greed-induced jump to the SEC in 2021 triggered a domino effect that sent two WAC schools, New Mexico State and Sam Houston, and one ASun school to Conference USA. The WAC and ASun's lone FBS anchor was gone. In December 2022, the combined football conference announced an unprecedented plan to move the entire conference to FBS. Months later, the NCAA predictably shot down this proposal, officially killing the FBS dreams of most of the conference.

These jilted FCS dreams led Texas-Rio Grande Valley and Stephen F. Austin to leave the WAC for the Southland. PAC-12 and Mountain West squabbles led to the departures of two more WAC members over the past year, bringing us to today.

The Big West will vote to extended invitations to Cal Baptist and Utah Valley. These departures bring the conference to just five members, one below the minimum needed for automatic bids in NCAA Championships. It likely signals the end of over six decades of history in the WAC but also creates a crisis for the United Athletic Conference and the ASun.

The United Athletic Conference (UAC) currently has nine members; five belong to the ASun in Olympic sports and four to the WAC. The four football-playing WAC members are too far westward to call the ASun home for Olympic sports. Thus, the UAC could drop from nine members to five once other conferences give the WAC Olympic sports homes. By association with the WAC, the UAC could have an existential crisis. Luckily, two schools abandoned by their fellow conference members could provide some assistance.

Charleston Southern and Gardner-Webb are the last two Big South members. The Coastal Athletic Conference and Atlantic Sun Conference took the Buccaneers' and Runnin' Bulldogs' counterparts until only they remained. Both schools are passing the time in the OVC-Big South Association for the foreseeable future. The arrangement is hardly beneficial but necessary. The two schools travel as far as Macomb, Illinois (Western Illinois) and St. Charles, Missouri (Lindenwood) for a chance at the FCS Playoffs.

Charleston Southern and Gardner-Webb are in the UAC's footprint with travel partners in West Georgia, and to a lesser extent, North Alabama. Furthermore, their additions would keep the UAC as an automatic FCS Playoff qualifier with seven members should the WAC schools leave the conference.

Charleston Southern and Gardner-Webb provide insurance for potential FBS departures even in the unlikely outcome that the WAC schools remain in the UAC. Tarleton's move to the FBS seems like a matter of when not if. Furthermore, Eastern Kentucky and Austin Peay both vocalized prior FBS ambitions. With Texas State of the Sun Belt constantly linked to PAC-12 expansion and UTEP leaving Conference USA for the Mountain West, both schools could realistically leave the ASun for either league.

Nevertheless, additions of Charleston Southern and Gardner-Webb come with downsides. The ASun is already at a healthy 12 schools and does not command a lucrative media deal. The Big South castoffs hardly add value to the conference's minuscule media deal. Their additions would also increase the divide between the conference's football and non-football members by creating an even split between the two factions.

Furthermore, their additions, particularly that of Gardner-Webb, create travel issues. Florida-Gulf Coast is a 12-hour drive from Gardner-Webb and nine hours from Charleston Southern. Stetson is a nine-hour journey to Gardner-Webb. Even football-playing member Central Arkansas would have qualms about the pair joining, being 11 hours away from Gardner-Webb and 13 from Charleston Southern.

Today, the UAC stands at a crossroads. The WAC's demise is another reminder that the conference's FBS dreams are over. The remaining WAC schools will likely scatter, leaving the ASun by its lonesome. The ASun must decide whether football is worth pursuing on its own. If the ASun decides football is worthwhile after the alliance with the WAC dissolves Charleston Southern and Gardner-Webb may be worth pursuing.